A Quick Round of Predictions

Putting My Money Where My Mouth Is

I’m posted a lot in the past about how most economists are not real scientists, and the reason that they have banned prediction markets is because if we had quantifiable evidence of how often they are wrong, most of them would become laughingstocks. I believe predictions - hard quantifiable predictions - are the best way to determine expertise in the soft sciences, and that most of our “experts” in these fields are largely worthless garbage.

So, here’s a prediction of mine: I currently bought 240 shares of Intel stock at $20 each. I predict that it will go up to $30 within a year. If my prediction is correct, I will explain how I came to that conclusion. If my prediction is incorrect, I will publicly apologize for calling Paul Krugman a stupid little gnome.

Place your bets! The great prediction contest has begun.