I agree with everything: 1) we don't live in a democracy, we live in an oligarchy, 2) economists don't know what they are talking about, 3) established experts obfuscate simple concepts to signal unattainable intelligence.
I work in information technology, and most of what good programmers do is not write code, it's figure out how to efficiently process the right information. Most information is worthless, especially in its raw form.
One nit-pick though: rocket science is actually pretty simple. The belief that rocket science is complicated is just a myth, which ironically serves to prove your point.
wow, thank you so much for that article. i'm now trying to think, whether such "common sense reality check" could be applied to russia as well - even though our stock market is tiny compared to us one, i believe some profitable investment decisions can be made here too.
bought the dark arts as well, hope i'll enjoy it as much as this longread
First of all, thank you for supporting my writing! My Dark Arts book may seem a little emotional compared to my normal style of writing on this blog. I wrote the whole thing during an extended psychedelic overdose when I was going through ego death, and I tried to embed a lot of subconscious memes into that book to influence the readers.
I think that Russia's stock market has a lot of potential. They have a ton of technical talent, but what has held them back for so long is that their economy was stuck in the "raw goods" phase of development, which made it hard for them to break into the robust entrepreneurial model that typically fuels rapid high-tech development and economic growth. Now, with 3d-printers and even 3d metal printers becoming more popular, it has never been easier to prototype things. I predict it won't be long before Russia has some shared low-cost hackspaces with access to laser cutting, 3d printing, etc, at which point it will be a lot easier for startup companies to spring up. As long as the government encourages this entrepreneurship and manages to grant the tech companies full immunity from shakedowns by local strongmen (a sad legacy of the Cold War), I think that the Russian economy could grow very quickly. Especially since Russia is one of the few countries that is being positively rather than negatively impacted by the early stages of global warming.
If you have any thoughts about Russia's economy, please share them! It's a country whose development I've been observing with great interest.
i am not an economist, even though i live in russia (now moscow, but was born in omsk, siberia.
while i tend to agree that our stock-market has a lot of potential, current elites (oligarchat) policy is not aimed at providing conditions for SMBs and entrepreneurs to thrive. as soon as one gets a big and tasty company running, FSB (russian FBI - those local strongmen you mentioned in your comment) comes to the founder and suddenly finds drugs or tax evasion evidence. while russian police officials build themselves luxurious houses filled with million dollars in cash and golden toilets (https://www.rbc.ru/politics/20/07/2021/60f698dc9a7947e7d7dd4d0e)
Thank you, that's very generous of you to say. I'm actually a big fan of the Founding Fathers, especially Ben Franklin. But I wouldn't be so arrogant as to put myself in the same category as those legends.
Yes, that's because between the time of me writing this article and the time you responded to it, the war between Russia and Ukraine happened. Naturally it wreaked havoc with the stock market.
Now you may say "Alex, if you're such a genius superforecaster, why didn't you predict the Russia-Ukraine war in advance?" The answer is that I DID predict it in advance. Here's the evidence (I am the user "SocratesScissors" on Reddit):
Look, I'm not going to argue with you because it's clear that you're just going to keep moving the goalposts. Most people would say that it's very impressive that I managed to predict both Covid and the Ukrainian War ahead of time and would consider that a more than adequate demonstration of superforecasting, but you seem to be expecting me to offer an in-depth analysis of every single factor that impacts the stock market. The answer is that I don't know, I'm neither an oracle nor an economist. Even people who specialize in markets would have difficulty predicting the exact outcomes of such a war.
Superforecasting allows us a limited ability to predict certain future events, but it doesn't allow us to predict how those events will ripple out into other areas. What you're asking for is both unreasonable and out of scope.
How am I moving the goalposts? My original comment compared Palantir to the overall S&P 500, so my original comment was asking why Palantir went down relative to the overall market. I am simply reiterating that point, since you made no effort to address it.
I agree with everything: 1) we don't live in a democracy, we live in an oligarchy, 2) economists don't know what they are talking about, 3) established experts obfuscate simple concepts to signal unattainable intelligence.
I work in information technology, and most of what good programmers do is not write code, it's figure out how to efficiently process the right information. Most information is worthless, especially in its raw form.
One nit-pick though: rocket science is actually pretty simple. The belief that rocket science is complicated is just a myth, which ironically serves to prove your point.
Really? Rocket science is simple? I guess I learned something new today.
Yes. The formulas are rather simple, and so are the concepts.
It's rocket engineering what is complicated.
wow, thank you so much for that article. i'm now trying to think, whether such "common sense reality check" could be applied to russia as well - even though our stock market is tiny compared to us one, i believe some profitable investment decisions can be made here too.
bought the dark arts as well, hope i'll enjoy it as much as this longread
First of all, thank you for supporting my writing! My Dark Arts book may seem a little emotional compared to my normal style of writing on this blog. I wrote the whole thing during an extended psychedelic overdose when I was going through ego death, and I tried to embed a lot of subconscious memes into that book to influence the readers.
I think that Russia's stock market has a lot of potential. They have a ton of technical talent, but what has held them back for so long is that their economy was stuck in the "raw goods" phase of development, which made it hard for them to break into the robust entrepreneurial model that typically fuels rapid high-tech development and economic growth. Now, with 3d-printers and even 3d metal printers becoming more popular, it has never been easier to prototype things. I predict it won't be long before Russia has some shared low-cost hackspaces with access to laser cutting, 3d printing, etc, at which point it will be a lot easier for startup companies to spring up. As long as the government encourages this entrepreneurship and manages to grant the tech companies full immunity from shakedowns by local strongmen (a sad legacy of the Cold War), I think that the Russian economy could grow very quickly. Especially since Russia is one of the few countries that is being positively rather than negatively impacted by the early stages of global warming.
If you have any thoughts about Russia's economy, please share them! It's a country whose development I've been observing with great interest.
i am not an economist, even though i live in russia (now moscow, but was born in omsk, siberia.
while i tend to agree that our stock-market has a lot of potential, current elites (oligarchat) policy is not aimed at providing conditions for SMBs and entrepreneurs to thrive. as soon as one gets a big and tasty company running, FSB (russian FBI - those local strongmen you mentioned in your comment) comes to the founder and suddenly finds drugs or tax evasion evidence. while russian police officials build themselves luxurious houses filled with million dollars in cash and golden toilets (https://www.rbc.ru/politics/20/07/2021/60f698dc9a7947e7d7dd4d0e)
this is also the reason why foreign investment is highly reluctant when it comes to investing in russian economy - the economic situation is so unstable, that almost finds those risks justified. especially after the story with Baring Vostok investment fund CEO Michael Calvy was arrested (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/russia-starts-embezzlement-trial-of-u-s-investor-calvey)
Thank you, this is very helpful.
You sound like Founding Father material.
Thank you, that's very generous of you to say. I'm actually a big fan of the Founding Fathers, especially Ben Franklin. But I wouldn't be so arrogant as to put myself in the same category as those legends.
Update from the future:
Between its IPO and today, Palantir has now *declined* 24%. The S&P 500 has *increased* 27% during the same period of time.
Yes, that's because between the time of me writing this article and the time you responded to it, the war between Russia and Ukraine happened. Naturally it wreaked havoc with the stock market.
Now you may say "Alex, if you're such a genius superforecaster, why didn't you predict the Russia-Ukraine war in advance?" The answer is that I DID predict it in advance. Here's the evidence (I am the user "SocratesScissors" on Reddit):
https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/s2gk0v/will_nato_expansionism_lead_to_a_war_between_the/?sort=controversial
I wrote about this in a bit more detail in my Substack post here.
https://questioner.substack.com/p/stock-markets-and-the-collective
Why would the war in Ukraine impact Palantir so much more than the rest of the market?
Look, I'm not going to argue with you because it's clear that you're just going to keep moving the goalposts. Most people would say that it's very impressive that I managed to predict both Covid and the Ukrainian War ahead of time and would consider that a more than adequate demonstration of superforecasting, but you seem to be expecting me to offer an in-depth analysis of every single factor that impacts the stock market. The answer is that I don't know, I'm neither an oracle nor an economist. Even people who specialize in markets would have difficulty predicting the exact outcomes of such a war.
Superforecasting allows us a limited ability to predict certain future events, but it doesn't allow us to predict how those events will ripple out into other areas. What you're asking for is both unreasonable and out of scope.
How am I moving the goalposts? My original comment compared Palantir to the overall S&P 500, so my original comment was asking why Palantir went down relative to the overall market. I am simply reiterating that point, since you made no effort to address it.