Superforecasting for Dummies

With a Side Order of Death

Imagine that you are the CEO of a tech company and have three employees vying for a promotion. One of them has the ability to make your company millions of dollars. Another one has the ability to make your company a few hundred thousand dollars. The last one has no value and actively interferes with the work of your other employees. Which one do you promote? The answer is simple, whichever one has the most minority credentials. That’s how you bolster your company’s diversity profile. In other words, if the first candidate (who can make your company millions of dollars) is a straight white man, the second candidate (who can make your company a few hundred thousand dollars) is a lesbian hispanic woman, and the third candidate (who is a shitty employee that drags everyone down) is a black transgendered woman, you would promote the black trangendered woman first, the lesbian hispanic woman second, and the straight white man last. It’s a pretty simple and straightforward calculus based on the intersectional oppression pyramid.

But that’s not the REAL question I want to ask you: it’s just the setup. My REAL question is this: in such a situation, what obligation does the straight white male employee have to the company that hired him? Should he bust his ass trying to make the company successful so that people like the black transgendered person reap the majority of the benefits? Or should he do the minimum amount of work to appear productive while secretly keeping his most useful knowledge to himself, because a company that discriminates against him in order to bend the knee to the woke diversity paradigm doesn’t deserve his best efforts? Personally, I believe the latter. If a company discriminates against you in the name of “equity,” then it’s not your obligation to put forth your best effort to help that company succeed. You are paid for a specific job, and while you have an obligation to do that job thoroughly and completely, only a sucker would go above and beyond for a company that clearly doesn’t care about him or reward his efforts.

The reason I bring this up is because every time I mention to somebody that I can predict the future well enough to make a lot of money off it, they inevitably ask the question “Well, if you’re so smart, then why aren’t you the CFO of some major corporation?” The reason this is a stupid question is because it falsely assumes that most modern corporations promote people based on merit. In today’s corporations (but most especially in the technology field where I have spent most of my life) promotions are not given on the basis of competence but rather on nepotism, connections, and where one stands on the DEI hierarchy. That’s why I’ve never bothered to explain to any of my employers that I could easily make them millions of dollars on the stock market: because most modern tech companies are run by bigots who actively discriminate against straight white men, and I have no interest in rewarding these executives for their racism and anti-white hatred by putting in any more effort than they are actually paying me for. Why would I want to make millions of dollars for my employers when they would just end up promoting a black lesbian transexual over me to improve their diversity ranking? I don’t care at all about “equity” or “diversity”: all I care about is my compensation package.

That said, I can predict the future - not perfectly, but well enough for it to be very profitable, and I can easily prove it. That’s what this Substack post is about.

Let’s start with the obvious question: Who am I and why am I qualified to write about this?

My name is Alexander Marzec, though many of you may know me better as Q (from the Qanon movement), and on a popular cat-enthusiast board I am known as Sir PingsALot (because I’ve always had a bad habit of pinging). I was also significantly involved in Gamergate which I used as a test run for creating the kind of widespread public outrage that would be needed to form the Qanon movement.

On the Good Judgement Project (which measures superforecasting ability), my scores can be seen here, as well as several of my predictions (Please note that for Brier scores, lower is better, so when you see ratings in the negatives - as you often do in my case - that is actually an indicator of phenomenally accurate predictions.) I don’t participate much in the Good Judgement Project because I prefer to use my ability to make money in the stock market. How good an investor am I? I analyze my returns here. I’d also like to point out that these phenomenal returns included me deliberately making some bad stock market investments, to screw over my ex-wife. Now that I no longer have to handicap my gains in order to sabotage her, my investment returns have only improved, and in 2024 alone my investment returns for that year were 63%. That’s a lot of money. Needless to say, I have bank receipts for all of this and can easily prove it to any reporter interested in investigating my track record.

I’ll also like to highlight some specific stock market predictions I made. These predictions are important because while in private I am constantly experimenting to try and refine my ability, in public - where my credibility is on the line - I only make predictions that I am exceptionally confident about. Let’s examine some of these predictions and their outcomes, shall we?

In this post (written in May of 2021), I recommended Palantir as a worthwhile investment and bought into them heavily almost immediately after they went on the market, at a price of $9 per share. The current price of Palantir is $76 per share. That’s an 850% return.

In this post (written in January of 2022), I reiterated my Palantir recommendation and also suggested buying into Tesla, at a price of roughly $320. The current price of Tesla is $411. That’s a 28% return. I’m sure it will go up more considering Elon’s successful political alliances of late.

In this reddit comment (written in July of 2018), I predicted that Amazon stock would be over $5000 in less than 5 years. At the time, the price of Amazon stock was $1813. Currently it is $225. However, Amazon underwent a 20 to 1 stock split in June of 2022, meaning that if you had bought one share when I recommended it, it would be worth $4500 today (for a 148% return). This is significant to point out because it shows even in the rare instance when I’m wrong, I’m usually not off by much, and you can still make a lot of money off my predictions, without investing in speculative intangibles like crypto or magic beans.

Now you might ask: do you have any public investment predictions that were wrong? Of course, you can feel free to go back over my history and check. Reddit prevents people from editing aged comments (and in any case, I was banned from Reddit so I would be incapable of deleting or editing my comment history). However, in almost all cases, even when my predictions were wrong, they were pretty close to the mark. The only prediction that I got extremely wrong was that the price of Bitcoin would drop, and I still maintain that once Bitcoin hits the cap of 21 million bitcoins created, the bubble will most likely pop (for reasons discussed here).

Superforecasting isn’t just about the stock market, however. It can also be used to predict geopolitical events ahead of time. Let’s analyze my track record.

In this Reddit comment thread (written in September of 2018), I predicted the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh and how it would destroy the Democrat’s chances for the “Blue Wave” they were hoping for in the midterms.

In this Reddit comment (written in June of 2018), I predicted that the U.S. would win the trade war with China.

In this Reddit comment (written in June of 2018) I predicted that the EU would begin a slow-motion collapse, and that in less than 5 years they’d lose another member nation. I was wrong about the second part (which I’m pointing out because unlike our current “experts,” I’m honest about my mistakes) but based on the rise of the EUs populist right-wing movement, and the fact that countries like Hungary and Poland are flat-out refusing to cooperate with migrant treaties, it seems like my prediction about EU collapse is fairly accurate.

In this Reddit post (written in January of 2022) I predicted the military conflict in Ukraine, back when almost everyone else thought Putin was just bluffing.

The reason I’m talking so much about the importance of my superforecasting ability is because for most superforecasters, their ability is more of a “gut feeling”: an art rather than a science. I, on the other hand, have been performing little experiments over the past fifteen years to refine it into a hard science that meets the criteria of replication and predictability. I believe that group behavior can be mathematically predicted by creating a topographical map of people’s incentives (by which I mean their real incentives as opposed to their stated intentions), and that’s the reason why my forecasts are far more accurate than most other peoples. I even wrote a book about this back in 2019. Please note the exact date of publication: it’s important because I wrote this entire book about superforecasting before making so much money on the stock market. In other words, I didn’t accidentally luck out into a lot of fabulous stock market returns and then retroactively come up with some superforecasting nonsense to explain it: instead I predicted beforehand that I was going to make a lot of money on the stock market and I was so confident in this prediction that I wrote a book about it in advance. That’s something that (to the best of my knowledge) no forecaster or economist has ever done. I would have been very embarrassed if I was wrong, but I was so confident in my predictions that I went ahead anyway, and I was right. You may also notice that in the first ten pages of my book I mention viruses a lot despite the fact that my book was published a few months before Covid started: this is not a coincidence either. I knew Covid was coming in advance (though I wasn’t sure of the exact date), so I prepared myself to make a lot of money from it, while tossing in a few easter egg hints about the pandemic you’d soon be facing.

Here’s a question you may be asking yourselves: If I’m so smart that I can predict the future, why haven’t I been a lot more successful in my career? Why is it only my investments that are doing well?

The answer is that I am in the tech industry, which is so woke and obsessed with DEI policies that I’m continually discriminated against by virtue of being a straight white man. Obviously this is very unjust. I believe that companies should reward their top-performing employees in a race-blind and gender-blind way without showing any favoritism to minorities or women. Because most tech companies that I’ve worked for would require me to work twice as hard for the same promotions and raises as a less-gifted employee would need (simply because of diversity and equity initiatives that actively discriminate against straight white males), I have no intention of making those companies more successful than I have to. I am hired to do a specific job, which I do to the best of my ability, and beyond that I only try to benefit my employers if I know that I will share in the rewards also. In other words, if you want me to make your company millions of dollars, it better be worth paying me a whole lot more than $80k. Otherwise, why would I want to use my superforecasting to make you money when I could just make money for myself instead? If I’m ever hired by a company that’s willing to reward me commensurately for the value I bring - rather than based on my diversity profile - then I’ll be willing to use my superforecasting talents on their behalf.

The same principle applies to society at large. For example, some of my associates in the rationalist community may be wondering at this point why - if I’m so gifted - I haven’t used my talents to benefit society? The short answer is that I don’t want to. Considering that we live in a predatory oligarchy dominated by manipulative psychopaths, that’s really all the justification I need, but if I had to explain my position further, I’d frame it like this. The wokeness paradigm that until recently dominated Western society created an anti-meritocratic diversity-obsessed movement that discriminates against straight white men like me, so I don’t believe in rewarding society by using my gifts to save lives, because that would give you the wrong incentives and only encourage you to continue discriminating against me. If I don’t like the way you treat me, I shouldn’t be helping you; I should be hurting you instead. You collectively created this society, and that means the responsibility for its injustices falls at your feet. I’m not much of an altruist: I fully admit that I want fame, money, and power - so as long as western society is going to treat straight white men as second class citizens while rewarding less gifted people for being minorities I’m not going to help society either. Even just pointing out this blatant anti-white discrimination frequently gets us unfairly accused of racism. Think hard about this for a moment. As you can see for yourselves, I predicted Covid and the Ukraine War in advance and I could potentially have saved millions of lives (and prevented a major Eastern European country from collapsing) if I were given institutional power and incentivized to be cooperative, so the fact that I wasn’t given any institutional power and I was incentivized to hurt you instead… well, I think that just says a lot about the vast incompetence of our ruling class. I have no obligation to help such people maintain power by giving them good outcomes: in fact they are my enemies and the main reason I supported Trump with Gamergate and later on with my Qanon activities was to help overthrow them. It is my firm belief that money, power, and fame should be both a reward and an incentive for benefiting society, and if society fails to live up to its part of the bargain by rewarding me for my usefulness then the social contract has been broken and I have zero obligations in return. Why are we paying Drake billions of dollars for making music and sleeping with underage girls while a dude who can literally predict the future makes less than six figures? Society gets the behavior it rewards. Any society that treats me as a second-class citizen because of an immutable characteristic like my gender or skin color is evil and it should be overthrown, either with ballots or with bullets. I believe that most Americans want to live in a fully colorblind meritocracy and any movement that works against this goal is our enemy. In short, until the woke mind virus that harms people like me is fully eradicated, I consider myself an enemy of the state - and I act accordingly. I encourage every other person like me who has also been harmed by anti-white discrimination to behave similarly.

It’s an awkward subject, but I know some people are going to ask why I deliberately made less money on my investments than I could have, to screw over my ex-wife. After all, while my investment returns are very impressive (when was the last time YOUR financial advisor got you 63% returns?) surely it would have been easier to prove my superforecasting skill by performing to the maximum limit of my ability.

The first part of that answer is that superforecasting is a science, and I am always perfecting it by investing small amounts as experiments and seeing how accurate my assessments are. However, the only predictions I make publicly are those that I have an extremely high degree of confidence in. The second part of that answer is that near the end of my marriage to my ex-wife, she got a job at a financial investment company named Polaris Capital. Since I knew my wife was spying on me illegally (and cheating as well) I decided to make revenge on her one of my top priorities. I knew that now that she worked in banking I would have to disclose my investments, and I suspected that her affair partner at work was copying my investments to exploit my superforecasting ability. That’s the reason I deliberately made some bad stock picks. This way, if her investment company was attempting to exploit my talent by mimicking my investments, they would lose a lot of money. I felt like it was worth taking a small financial hit in order to hurt anybody who might be trying to exploit my talents without rewarding me appropriately, but also to get revenge on my ex-wife. I’m proud of being a vindictive person because I’ve discovered that if I consistently hurt people every single time they try to exploit or lie to me, they quickly learn to stop doing it. However, again, please note that the investment predictions I made publicly (ie, the predictions where my reputation was at stake) have always been far more accurate than the predictions I made privately, partially because of the experimental nature of my private predictions and partially because I wanted to financially harm my ex-wife. She did cost me half my money in the divorce, after all - delaying my planned retirement substantially - and I am a firm believer in tit-for-tat retaliation.

While I’m discussing this topic, I’d like to bring up a previous post I wrote, where I mentioned that hate was something that could be scientifically measured and quantified. Left-wing globalists often deny that they hate white people, as well as denying that we - not brown people, not asians, and certainly not transsexuals - are the primary victims of bigotry and discrimination. But is that really true? Now that you know superforecasting is real and I showed you - in advance - how to make a lot of money on the stock market from it, consider that this opportunity to make millions of dollars (or possibly billions, depending on the size of the portfolio) was totally available to any corporation that was willing to hire me and treat me well. However, most major technology companies hate straight white men so much that they were willing to leave billions of dollars in potential revenue on the table just so they could hire and promote black transexual lesbians over far more competent candidates like myself. And now that you have proof that I’ve been able to predict major geopolitical events in advance - such as Covid and the Ukraine war - consider the fact that most left-wing Western governments hate straight white men so much that they were willing to let millions of people - possibly even your own family members - die to an easily preventable virus and they even allowed Ukraine to collapse rather than give people like me even a scrap of institutional power. I don’t know how you feel about that, but personally that seems like a lot of hate to me. If discrimination is really as bad as I’m told, then I think that these corporations and governments all deserve to be punished for it, don’t you? Why is discrimination against minorities unacceptable but open discrimination against white people is not only tolerated, but celebrated?

If you ever wonder why I worked so hard to get Trump elected, or why Democrats lost in a landslide in 2024, remember that the alternative to Trump populism is a political party that hates people who look like me so much that to them, keeping us down and preventing us from achieving the positions of leadership that we deserve is worth billions of dollars and millions of lost lives. Really makes you think, doesn’t it? If you know anyone who died of Covid or lost their lives in Ukraine, just remember that all this could easily have been prevented if not for the bigotry and hatred that our extreme Leftist government shows towards people like me.